Bitcoin: What to expect this week? For Bitcoin, as for all risky markets, this week could be crucial. Publication of figures on inflation or those of the Chinese trade balance, macroeconomic indicators could once again play a leading role. All this is against the background of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict which seems to be intensifying.
Bitcoin remains stuck below $20,000, volatility is low!
For several weeks, the threshold of 20,000 dollars has played the role of a level of resistance that seems difficult to cross. As shown in this graph, offered by the Coinmarketcap platform and which shows the price of Bitcoin over the past week:
Between October 4 and 6, the $20,000 level was tested several times. Before being rejected by the markets one last time last Friday. As of this writing, the token is trading for just over $19,200.
Last weekend, volumes remained low on Bitcoin. This is also a trend that we have been observing for weeks. Volatility is now relatively low around Bitcoin, as evidenced by the following chart which shows Bitcoin's weekly candles since 2021. Over the past 4 weeks, the volume has remained extremely flat. For 2 years, the market had never been so calm for such a long period.
A major movement to come in November?
This lack of volatility in the asset leads some observers to say that a powerful movement could begin in the weeks to come. A kind of calm before the storm. As trader Jordan Lindsey recently informed his Twitter followers.
A big move up or down is coming.
To justify his position, Lindsey advances the BVOL indicator. This is an indicator that measures the volatility index of Bitcoin. Currently, this indicator is at historic lows. Points that the mother of cryptocurrencies has only touched on very rare occasions.
In October 2018, Bitcoin was showing a BVOL roughly similar to what we see today. A few weeks later, the asset slipped close to $3,000, losing almost 50% of its value. A view also shared by William Clemente, co-founder of digital asset research and trading firm Reflexivity Research:
Currently, it (the BVOL indicator) is again below level 36 and this indicates that a very big move is coming soon this month or most likely in November.
Several elements could launch Bitcoin!
While some observers believe that the period of dead calm could last a few more weeks, several elements could reinvigorate Bitcoin in the days or months to come. Starting with the level of inflation in the United States, whose September figures are to be published next Thursday.
If the consensus is aiming for 8.1%, the real data could once again play a strong role in the price of Bitcoin. Before that, the FED minutes scheduled for Wednesday could already give the market the LA.
If the macroeconomic variables have occupied the foreground for weeks, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is back in the foreground. Between the two camps, the tension seems to be going up a notch again. And this could impact all risky markets.
What about market sentiment?
The Crypto Fear and Greed indicator has also been quite stable for a few days. At the time of writing, it is 22/100, which remains within the standards of recent weeks. Many observers note that the market tends to follow the same cycle timings as in 2014 or 2018.
By comparing the last cycles, many consider that Bitcoin and the crypto market could be close to their bottom. Indeed, during previous declines, Bitcoin saw its price fall by 73 to 80% between the last historical peak and its lowest point, which led to a reversal of the trend. We are currently close to this first threshold of 73%.
In the longer term, the Bitcoin halving predicted for the end of 2023 could give digital assets further momentum.
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