If you have been looking to invest, you have certainly asked yourself which investments can protect you against inflation, and that is what we are talking about in this article. Inflation is an economic phenomenon that, when it is too high and unanticipated, can have a resounding impact on the purchasing power of households. What is it exactly? What forms can inflation take? What are its causes and effects?
Discover the advantages and disadvantages of inflation and find the replay of our videoconference on the investments to be favored during periods of inflation and those to avoid.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: What Is Inflation?
Inflation is a constant increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. It is measured annually and is presented as a percentage. When inflation increases, the purchasing power of each euro you own decreases accordingly.
The value of a euro is not constant when there is inflation. The value of a euro is determined in terms of purchasing power, which represents the real and material goods that money can buy. When inflation is theoretically high, purchasing power goes down.
For example, if the inflation rate is 2% per year, then a packet of chewing gum for 1 euro will cost 1.02 euros after one year. After inflation, your euro will no longer be able to buy the same goods as before.
This is why the question often arises as to whether regulated savings investments such as the Livret A have an interest rate that at least covers inflation. The whole issue then is not even seeing his investment pay off, but that it does not cost.
Inflation, Deflation, Hyperinflation, Stagflation: The Different Variations of Inflation
There are several variations in inflation.
Deflation or the reverse of inflation
Deflation is when the general price level falls. It is the opposite of inflation.
Hyperinflation: very rapid rise in prices
This is exceptionally rapid inflation. In extreme cases, this can lead to the collapse of a country's monetary system.
One of the most prominent examples of hyperinflation occurred in Germany in 1923, when prices increased by 2,500% in one month, or even more recently in Venezuela in 2018, when inflation exceeded 1,000,000%. per year!
Stagflation: low growth and high inflation
It is the combination of high unemployment and economic stagnation accompanied (paradoxically) by inflation. This is what happened in industrialized countries in the 1970s when a weak economy was associated with an increase in oil prices led by OPEC (OPEC's ancestor).
While there is a lot of talk about inflation at the start of 2022, according to some analysts, we could be entering a period of stagflation this year. Of course, at this stage, these are only speculations.
In recent years, most developed countries have tried, often without much success, to maintain an inflation rate of around 2%. Inflation of between 2 and 3% is judged by specialists in macroeconomics as healthy for a country's economy. For some central bank governors, a target inflation rate is given as an objective with the possibility of revocation of the mandate in the event of failure to maintain the rate at the target.
A note published by Société Générale, titled "A World Without Inflation", supports the theory of durably low inflation (below the 2% target of most developed countries), despite multiple quantitative easing plans past or in progress.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: What Is Inflation In 2022?
The annual inflation rate in Europe was 5.2% in 2021 and 7% in the USA, according to data announced in November 2021 by Eurostat, with disparities depending on the 6.0% for Germany and 6.3% for Luxembourg, rising to 9.3% in Lithuania. France and Portugal are the least affected countries, with inflation at 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively.
This is a sharp increase in inflation, as can be seen in the chart below:
The Causes of Inflation: Inflation By Demand And By Costs
The causes of inflation provoke heavy debate among economists. There is no single cause approved by all, but two theories are generally accepted:
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Inflation by demand
This theory can be summed up as “too much money for too few goods." In short, if demand increases faster than supply, prices will increase. This often happens in developing economies, and this is particularly what is at stake with the economic rebound that is currently taking place with the end of the health crisis linked to the COVID-19 epidemic.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Cost inflation
When business costs rise, businesses must increase their prices to maintain their profit margins. Rising costs can refer to wages, taxes, and rising import and export costs. The current health crisis, with a slowdown or even a complete shutdown of certain sectors at the height of the epidemic, has caused a shortage of certain raw materials or components used in the manufacture of many products, the prices of which have consequently soared. One thinks, for example, of the current shortage of semiconductors, which penalizes many sectors ranging from IT to the automobile.
If the semiconductor shortage was at the center of discussions in 2021, it is the rise in energy and raw material prices that seems to have started the price increase at the end of 2022.
Inflation: Good or Bad for Purchasing Power?
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: The cost of inflation
Everyone thinks inflation is a bad thing, but that's not always the case. Inflation affects different economic actors in different ways. It depends on whether or not we were able to anticipate inflation. If the inflation rate is what the majority of the population expected (expected inflation), then it is possible to compensate and the costs will not be high. Thus, banks can change their interest rates and employees can negotiate contracts that include an automatic increase in wages as the price level rises. In this context, the decisions of the FED (the US Federal Reserve) are closely watched because they give an indication of the expected level of inflation.
Problems arise when inflation has not been anticipated.
Creditors lose and debtors gain if the lender does not anticipate inflation correctly. For those who borrow, it is equivalent to being granted a loan with no interest to pay. Inflation reduces debt, as the Think Tank BSI Economics points out. And this is true for states as well, of course! Moreover, in history, public deficits have more often been reimbursed thanks to inflation than thanks to the introduction of new taxes.
But unexpected inflation also has other negative aspects. For example, uncertainty about the future drives businesses and consumers to spend less, which in the long run affects the economic output.
People on a fixed income, such as retirees, see their purchasing power and their standard of living reduced.
The whole economy has to absorb the revaluation of costs (“menu costs”) because current prices, labels, menus, and many other things have to be updated.
Note also that if the inflation rate of a country is higher than that of other countries, national products become less competitive.
The Big Mac Index is one of the most commonly used economic indicators around the world to measure the cost of living. This benchmark consumer product makes it easy to compare purchasing power between different countries in the world.
People like to complain about rising prices but are often unaware that this means wages should rise too. The real question is not whether or not inflation is rising, but rather whether it is rising faster than wages.
Finally, inflation is often a sign of economic growth. In some cases, low inflation (or even deflation) can be as bad as high inflation. A total absence of inflation may indicate that the economy is weak. It is therefore not so simple to qualify inflation favorably or not; it depends both on the economy as a whole and on your personal situation.
Return Of Inflation: How To Invest In The Stock Market
Investing To Protect Against Inflation
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Gold
Gold is the most popular and historic bulwark against inflation. It performs well in a long-term inflationary environment, such as in the 1970s, when its price was multiplied by more than 10 over the decade when inflation rates were high, around 5 to 10% per year. Gold is a safe haven when the economy is turbulent. Investing in gold allows you to preserve the value of your assets and your purchasing power. It derives its status as a safe haven from its tangible nature, its rarity, and the fact that it is not backed by any institution (unlike money).
If it is generally recommended to hold part of your investment portfolio in gold (ingot, ETF), be careful though, because the yellow metal has not always played its role as a safe haven against inflation. Gold is also a financial asset around which there is a lot of speculation, and overexposure to gold could hold unpleasant surprises.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are increasingly tending to establish themselves as a safe haven since they are considered digital gold (for Bitcoin anyway), and their prices tend to increase in times of economic uncertainty, weak dollar, and negative rates, especially Bitcoin, the first capitalization of virtual currencies. Like gold, virtual currency is an asset that is uncorrelated to any currency or central bank.
Liquid and easily convertible, cryptocurrency is not a tangible but an intangible good that appeals more to young people. Would Bitcoin then be the gold of Millennials? Possible! But beware: like gold, cryptocurrency sometimes fails to endorse its status as a safe haven, and its price can fall in times of inflation.
Since the end of 2021, as stock markets fall, cryptocurrencies also tend to fall. They, therefore, behave more like speculative assets than safe-havens.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Real Estate and SPCIs
Real estate, and a fortiori SCPIs (Sociétés Civiles de Placement Immobilier), can be attractive investments in the event of inflation. Like gold or commodities, it is a tangible asset–stone–which tends to appreciate during inflationary phases.
Thus, the value of the property will tend to increase along with inflation. Also note that the rent reference index is indexed to inflation, which is particularly advantageous for the lessor, who will not have to suffer from inflation. The yield is therefore preserved in the event of a rental investment.
At the same time, with the situation we are experiencing in 2022, we have experienced a lot of speculation on real estate in recent years due to very low borrowing rates. A rise in rates due to inflation could have a negative impact on the real estate market.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Raw Materials
Inflation is, by definition, directly linked to the price of raw materials. It is therefore interesting to hold it to cancel its effects. They are real, tangible assets, necessary for the economy. Thus, in the event of inflation, the price of raw materials increases because they retain their value in use.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Stock Market Shares
Certain company shares on the stock market, in a context of inflation-linked to a period of economic growth, constitute an interesting asset class, especially if they are able to adjust their price quickly (this is called pricing power).
We can, for example, cite major brands, luxury companies ( Hermès, LVMH, etc.), or quasi-monopolies in certain industries (Plastic Omnium, Coca-Cola, etc.). Bank stocks are also interesting: they would benefit from a possible rise in interest rates to offset inflation, which would allow them to increase their margin.
Investments To Avoid In Case Of Inflation
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Euro Life Insurance Bonds And Funds
If inflation returns, it is advisable to avoid bond funds which are positioned mainly on European government bonds at fixed rates. If inflation is higher than the fixed bond rate, you are mathematically losing money. Note that life insurance funds in euros are mainly made up of these bonds and should therefore be avoided in the event of inflation. Alternatively, there are inflation-indexed bonds to protect you from this risk.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Bank Books
The rate of bank books, and in particular the passbook A at 0.5%, does not cover inflation. Again, as with bonds, if the inflation rate is higher than the return on the booklet, you mathematically lose money.
You can calculate the actual yield of the booklet by subtracting the theoretical yield from the value of the inflation rate to arbitrate on the relevance of the booklet for your investments.
Investments To Protect Against Inflation: Defensive Stocks In The Stock Market
Also avoid defensive securities on the stock market (such as shares of companies in the basic consumer goods sector or the utility sector), which have difficulty adjusting their prices upwards (no pricing power) while production costs increase, directly affecting operating margins.
If these companies are highly indebted, a decline in operating margins puts them at risk. They could have difficulty repaying their debt, and this financial imbalance could have consequences for the price of these shares on the stock market.
Warning
All of our information is, by nature, generic. They do not take into account your personal situation and do not in any way constitute personalized recommendations with a view to carrying out transactions and cannot be assimilated to a financial investment advice service nor to any incentive to buy or sell instruments.
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